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105 docs. Wiki-linked, tagged, searchable. ⌘K to search.
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- AI Capex Watchlist Check — August 20, 2026
- #ai-economics
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #hardware
- Compute as Collateral — The Residual-Value Wrap and What It Does to the Depreciation Question
- #ai-economics
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #hardware
- Five Years of Capex Already Signed — What the $3T Tally Actually Locks In
- #ai-economics
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #political-economy
- Four Mountains — Splitting $3T by Why It Is Being Spent, and Who Pays
- #ai-economics
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #macro
- #pricing
- The Mask That Eats What It Hides — Memory, Power, and the Cyclical 20%
- #ai-economics
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #hardware
- #political-economy
- What $3 Trillion Has to Earn — A Token-Level Feasibility Model
- #ai-economics
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #pricing
- China's Silent Depression: The Balance-Sheet Recession, Verified by Bank Behavior
- #china
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- Buddy: Parallel Research Workspaces
- #meta
- #ai-tools
- If the Bubble Collapses: Which Way Do Token Prices Break, and Do the Labs Survive?
- #ai-economics
- #market-analysis
- #pricing
- #framework
- #macro
- The Rotation Playbook: Exit Paths by Sleeve
- #finance
- #personal
- #strategy
- #method
- #macro
- Regime Check — August 7, 2026: The Freeze Converts, B Takes the Lead
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #labor
- #energy
- Seattle Events Radar — Design for a Weekly What's-On System
- #seattle
- #family
- #events
- #practical
- #plan
- The Hidden Bank Closes: Yen Carry, Channel 1, and the AI Boom's Japanese Funding Leg
- #macro
- #japan
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #ai-economics
- The Shadow Balance Sheet: Nikkei's $1.65T and the SPV Layer, Verified
- #ai-economics
- #finance
- #macro
- #private-credit
- #shadow-banking
- Demand Destruction or Strategy? The China Import Cut, Adjudicated
- #macro
- #energy
- #china
- #market-analysis
- #disinflation
- The Apartment Glut and the Multifamily Lender Tell
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #housing
- #consumer
- The China Oil Buffer: Auditing "How China Saved the World" (Max Fisher)
- #macro
- #energy
- #geopolitics
- #china
- #iran-war
- The 2030 Landing Posture: What "Treat Post-2032 Income as a Bonus" Actually Means
- #career
- #personal
- #strategy
- #ai-economics
- #earnings
- The Shadow-Bank Household Channel: How Private Credit Wired Itself Into the Savings Pump
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #private-credit
- #shadow-banking
- The Orchestrator Premium: LLMs as the New Abstraction Layer and What It Does to Your Price
- #career
- #ai-economics
- #market-analysis
- #personal
- #strategy
- Minecraft LLM Building Agents — Can a Bot World-Build While You're Offline?
- #ai
- #agents
- #gaming
- #feasibility
- #family
- The Failure Cascade Index
- #macro
- #finance
- #method
- #disinflation
- #market-analysis
- How Inflation Dies: Demand Destruction and the Empty Reservoir
- #macro
- #finance
- #framework
- #consumer
- #labor
- Normalization or Destruction: A Trend-Break Test for the Asset Drain
- #finance
- #macro
- #method
- #market-analysis
- #disinflation
- Regime Check — July 11, 2026: The Dot Plot Flips, Oil Round-Trips, and the Last Reservoir Narrows
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #iran-war
- #energy
- The Involution Import: Open-Weight Deflation and Frontier Pricing Power
- #ai-economics
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #macro
- #pricing
- The Two-Economy Gauge
- #macro
- #finance
- #consumer
- #labor
- #energy
- Family Spend Reality — and the Plan to Cut It
- #finances
- #budget
- #family
- Cyclical-20 and the AI Capex Mask — Why Recession May Already Be Underway
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #method
- Regime Check — June 10, 2026: Both Stagflation Legs Fire, the Labor Read Breaks, the AI Tape Cracks
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #iran-war
- #energy
- Energy, Inflation, and the Stagflation Forecast — 2026 Through 2031
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #iran-war
- #framework
- The Demand-Side Audit — Labor, Consumer, and the Institutional Capitulation Lag
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #personal
- LLM Psychosis and the Vulnerability Question — Evidence, Mechanism, Cyberpsychosis Parallel
- #ai
- #ai-safety
- #psychology
- #public-health
- #framework
- X-Induced Delusions and the Bayesian Brain — Can Bad Input Alone Break You?
- #ai-safety
- #psychology
- #public-health
- #framework
- #technology-and-society
- Iran Ceasefire Durability — Is This Just Another TACO Lever?
- #iran-war
- #geopolitics
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- Regime Check — May 27, 2026: Peace Premium Draining, Semi Concentration at Record
- #finance
- #personal
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #strategy
- Cape Meares Memorial Day Weekend 2026 — Trip Plan
- #personal
- #family
- #oregon-coast
- #travel
- #planning
- US Fertility Decline and Washington State Demographics
- #demographics
- #fertility
- #macro
- #political-economy
- #seattle
- FilmFrame on a Sony A7: PMCA Feasibility
- #camera-systems
- #reverse-engineering
- #android
- #feasibility
- #hardware-hacking
- Token Cost Velocity 2023-2026: Three Labs, Three Tiers, and Where the Curve Is Headed
- #ai-economics
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #macro
- #pricing
- EV Options After the Trailseeker Stockout (May 19, 2026)
- #personal
- #family
- #ev
- #practical
- #macro
- Aschenbrenner × Dwarkesh: Verification, Funding, and Audit
- #ai
- #ai-economics
- #ai-safety
- #political-economy
- #macro
- Earnings Potential, Age 40 → 65: Paths, Ceilings, and the AI Wall
- #personal
- #career
- #earnings
- #macro
- #ai-economics
- The Data Center Convergence
- #ai-economics
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- The Eccles Inversion — Warsh's Confirmation, the May 13 Data Collision, and the New-Accord Question
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #political-economy
- AI Survival Theater and the Bubble: Is Adoption Real or Performative?
- #ai-economics
- #market-analysis
- #political-economy
- #framework
- #macro
- The EV Sales Paradox of 2026 and the R2 vs. Trailseeker Question
- #personal
- #family
- #ev
- #practical
- #macro
- Mechanism vs Narrative: An Analytical Method
- #framework
- #method
- #political-economy
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- The Information Density and Event Speed Asymmetry
- #framework
- #macro
- #political-economy
- #philosophy
- #meta
- The Midwest Resurgence and the Physical Capital Pivot: Structural Shift or Regime Artifact?
- #macro
- #political-economy
- #framework
- #market-analysis
- #geopolitics
- Regime Cascade Architecture: Reservoirs, Dams, and Transmission Channels
- #macro
- #framework
- #market-analysis
- #political-economy
- #geopolitics
- The Government Put Question: Rescue Models and 2026 Conditions
- #macro
- #political-economy
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- The Warsh Fed and the Financial Repression Thesis
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #political-economy
- AI Circular Financing and Banking Exposure: How Close Is a Banking Issue?
- #ai-economics
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #macro
- DJ Software: From Old-School Traktor to Modern OSS
- #music
- #electronic-music
- #production
- #personal
- #dj-tools
- Japan Debt Trap Thesis: An Empirical Audit
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #geopolitics
- #japan
- The Second Gilded Age Thesis: An Empirical and Historical Audit
- #macro
- #political-economy
- #framework
- #market-analysis
- #turchin
- Anthropic Subsidy Stress Test — What Happens If the Compute Discount Goes Away
- #ai-economics
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #macro
- Anthropic Unit Economics and the Power-User Loss
- #ai-economics
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #macro
- Formative Anchors: Substrate, Method, and Self-Instrumentation
- #personal
- #self-reflection
- #formative-years
- #framework
- #meta
- Silhouette Regression and the Formative Years Anchor
- #personal
- #self-reflection
- #formative-years
- #framework
- Wall Street's "233-Year Monopoly" Claim: An Audit of the April 21–23 Events
- #crypto
- #tokenization
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #political-economy
- Mo Gawdat's Dystopia Thesis: A Steelman and Audit
- #ai
- #ai-safety
- #political-economy
- #futurism
- #macro
- Regime Check — May 2, 2026
- #finance
- #personal
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #strategy
- How the 90s electronic vanguard actually makes records — organic vs patterned
- #music
- #electronic-music
- #craft
- #production
- PCC Deficit Paths and the May 27 Decision
- #childcare
- #family
- #seattle
- #political-economy
- #finance
- The Ryōma Archetype, 2026 — Who, What, Where
- #framework
- #strategy
- #geopolitics
- #japan
- #political-economy
- Fertilizer Through Hormuz — Keen's Food Crisis and the Japan Exposure
- #macro
- #finance
- #iran-war
- #japan
- #family
- Polly's Fidelity 403(b) — Allocation Research
- #finance
- #personal
- #family
- #macro
- #strategy
- Regime Check — April 26, 2026
- #finance
- #personal
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #strategy
- The Household Agent: A Separate System, Not an Extension of the Vault
- #ai-tools
- #agents
- #personal
- #strategy
- #mcp
- Why the Market Refuses to Crash
- #personal
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #finance
- #strategy
- ADHD as the Family Operating System
- #personal
- #family
- #adhd
- #self-reflection
- #practical
- AI Infrastructure Endgame — Indicators, Archetypes, and Gaps
- #ai-economics
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #political-economy
- #framework
- The Positioning Vault
- #blog
- #draft
- #meta
- #ai-tools
- #personal
- PCC Closure and the Childcare Collapse
- #personal
- #family
- #childcare
- #seattle
- #political-economy
- Shoreline Toddler Care Backup Map
- #personal
- #family
- #childcare
- #seattle
- The Elite Operating Manual
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #geopolitics
- #strategy
- #self-reflection
- The Positioning Vault Pattern
- #personal
- #self-reflection
- #strategy
- #meta
- #ai-tools
- Macro Force Vectors — April 2026
- #macro
- #finance
- #strategy
- #framework
- Portfolio Rebalance Plan — April 2026
- #finance
- #personal
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #strategy
- What an AI Crash Looks Like and How to Defend a 401k Against It
- #ai-economics
- #macro
- #personal
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- Interstellar — Why It Works (The Emotional Formula)
- #personal
- #film
- #storytelling
- #music
- #craft
- Should I Switch the Forester to an EV? (April 2026 Hormuz Edition)
- #personal
- #family
- #ev
- #practical
- #macro
- EV Buying Guide: Father-in-Law's Rural WA/OR Commute
- #personal
- #family
- #ev
- #practical
- Linguistic Habitus and the Three Resources: Where You Fit in Bourdieu's Machine
- #bourdieu
- #cultural-capital
- #status-signaling
- #self-reflection
- #personal
- The Fallow Stage: Action Bias vs. the Pause That Builds
- #personal
- #self-reflection
- #strategy
- #career
- Staff Engineer Job Market 2026: Should You Move?
- #career
- #market-analysis
- #personal
- #strategy
- #ai-economics
- Seattle Cafe & Night Guide: Work Spots, Late Nights, and the 9PM Problem
- #personal
- #seattle
- Music Discovery and Taste Archaeology: Going Backwards to Go Forward
- #personal
- #self-reflection
- #japan
- #music
- PNW Seafood Through Japanese Eyes: What's Here That You're Missing
- #japan
- #personal
- #food
- AI Token Economics and Open-Source Competition (April 2026)
- #ai-economics
- #strategy
- #market-analysis
- The Full Stack: Energy, Chips, and the AI Subsidy Unwind
- #ai-economics
- #market-analysis
- #geopolitics
- #macro
- #iran-war
- The Efficiency Counterthesis: Can Technology Outrun the Unwind?
- #ai-economics
- #market-analysis
- #hardware
- #strategy
- Content Distribution Playbook
- #blog
- #strategy
- #personal
- Creative Career Pivot: What Actually Fits
- #personal
- #career
- #strategy
- #self-reflection
- Fantasy FAANGball: Can You Build a Fantasy Sports League for Software Engineers?
- #product-idea
- #github
- #gamification
- #satire
- #feasibility
- Human Augmentation and the Speed Mismatch
- #transhumanism
- #evolution
- #philosophy
- #personal
- #self-reflection
- Unknown Unknowns at 40
- #personal
- #self-reflection
- #health
- #family
- #philosophy
- Elite Overproduction, Status Signaling, and the Crisis of Social Consensus
- #turchin
- #bourdieu
- #elite-overproduction
- #status-signaling
- #cultural-capital
- Execution Plan: Phase 0 → 1 → 2
- #plan
- #blog
- #sigil
- #education
- #phase-0
- Gap Analysis: HENRY → Next Stage
- #personal
- #henry
- #gap-analysis
- #career
- #wealth
- Grand Scheme Advice: What 1,443 Conversations Reveal
- #personal
- #career
- #strategy
- #self-reflection
- #japan
- How Your Taste Works (And What It Has to Do With Class)
- #bourdieu
- #status-signaling
- #cultural-capital
- #self-reflection
- #japan
- Wife's 40th Birthday — Ideas
- #personal
- #family