Type
research
66 docs
- Compute as Collateral — The Residual-Value Wrap and What It Does to the Depreciation Question
- #ai-economics
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #hardware
- Five Years of Capex Already Signed — What the $3T Tally Actually Locks In
- #ai-economics
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #political-economy
- The Mask That Eats What It Hides — Memory, Power, and the Cyclical 20%
- #ai-economics
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #hardware
- #political-economy
- China's Silent Depression: The Balance-Sheet Recession, Verified by Bank Behavior
- #china
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- If the Bubble Collapses: Which Way Do Token Prices Break, and Do the Labs Survive?
- #ai-economics
- #market-analysis
- #pricing
- #framework
- #macro
- The Hidden Bank Closes: Yen Carry, Channel 1, and the AI Boom's Japanese Funding Leg
- #macro
- #japan
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #ai-economics
- The Shadow Balance Sheet: Nikkei's $1.65T and the SPV Layer, Verified
- #ai-economics
- #finance
- #macro
- #private-credit
- #shadow-banking
- Demand Destruction or Strategy? The China Import Cut, Adjudicated
- #macro
- #energy
- #china
- #market-analysis
- #disinflation
- The Apartment Glut and the Multifamily Lender Tell
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #housing
- #consumer
- The China Oil Buffer: Auditing "How China Saved the World" (Max Fisher)
- #macro
- #energy
- #geopolitics
- #china
- #iran-war
- The Shadow-Bank Household Channel: How Private Credit Wired Itself Into the Savings Pump
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #private-credit
- #shadow-banking
- The Orchestrator Premium: LLMs as the New Abstraction Layer and What It Does to Your Price
- #career
- #ai-economics
- #market-analysis
- #personal
- #strategy
- Minecraft LLM Building Agents — Can a Bot World-Build While You're Offline?
- #ai
- #agents
- #gaming
- #feasibility
- #family
- How Inflation Dies: Demand Destruction and the Empty Reservoir
- #macro
- #finance
- #framework
- #consumer
- #labor
- The Involution Import: Open-Weight Deflation and Frontier Pricing Power
- #ai-economics
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #macro
- #pricing
- Cyclical-20 and the AI Capex Mask — Why Recession May Already Be Underway
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #method
- Energy, Inflation, and the Stagflation Forecast — 2026 Through 2031
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #iran-war
- #framework
- The Demand-Side Audit — Labor, Consumer, and the Institutional Capitulation Lag
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #personal
- LLM Psychosis and the Vulnerability Question — Evidence, Mechanism, Cyberpsychosis Parallel
- #ai
- #ai-safety
- #psychology
- #public-health
- #framework
- X-Induced Delusions and the Bayesian Brain — Can Bad Input Alone Break You?
- #ai-safety
- #psychology
- #public-health
- #framework
- #technology-and-society
- Iran Ceasefire Durability — Is This Just Another TACO Lever?
- #iran-war
- #geopolitics
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- US Fertility Decline and Washington State Demographics
- #demographics
- #fertility
- #macro
- #political-economy
- #seattle
- FilmFrame on a Sony A7: PMCA Feasibility
- #camera-systems
- #reverse-engineering
- #android
- #feasibility
- #hardware-hacking
- Token Cost Velocity 2023-2026: Three Labs, Three Tiers, and Where the Curve Is Headed
- #ai-economics
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #macro
- #pricing
- Aschenbrenner × Dwarkesh: Verification, Funding, and Audit
- #ai
- #ai-economics
- #ai-safety
- #political-economy
- #macro
- Earnings Potential, Age 40 → 65: Paths, Ceilings, and the AI Wall
- #personal
- #career
- #earnings
- #macro
- #ai-economics
- The Data Center Convergence
- #ai-economics
- #finance
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- The Eccles Inversion — Warsh's Confirmation, the May 13 Data Collision, and the New-Accord Question
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #political-economy
- AI Survival Theater and the Bubble: Is Adoption Real or Performative?
- #ai-economics
- #market-analysis
- #political-economy
- #framework
- #macro
- The EV Sales Paradox of 2026 and the R2 vs. Trailseeker Question
- #personal
- #family
- #ev
- #practical
- #macro
- Mechanism vs Narrative: An Analytical Method
- #framework
- #method
- #political-economy
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- The Information Density and Event Speed Asymmetry
- #framework
- #macro
- #political-economy
- #philosophy
- #meta
- The Midwest Resurgence and the Physical Capital Pivot: Structural Shift or Regime Artifact?
- #macro
- #political-economy
- #framework
- #market-analysis
- #geopolitics
- Regime Cascade Architecture: Reservoirs, Dams, and Transmission Channels
- #macro
- #framework
- #market-analysis
- #political-economy
- #geopolitics
- The Government Put Question: Rescue Models and 2026 Conditions
- #macro
- #political-economy
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- The Warsh Fed and the Financial Repression Thesis
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #political-economy
- AI Circular Financing and Banking Exposure: How Close Is a Banking Issue?
- #ai-economics
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #macro
- DJ Software: From Old-School Traktor to Modern OSS
- #music
- #electronic-music
- #production
- #personal
- #dj-tools
- Japan Debt Trap Thesis: An Empirical Audit
- #macro
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #geopolitics
- #japan
- The Second Gilded Age Thesis: An Empirical and Historical Audit
- #macro
- #political-economy
- #framework
- #market-analysis
- #turchin
- Anthropic Subsidy Stress Test — What Happens If the Compute Discount Goes Away
- #ai-economics
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #macro
- Anthropic Unit Economics and the Power-User Loss
- #ai-economics
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #framework
- #macro
- Formative Anchors: Substrate, Method, and Self-Instrumentation
- #personal
- #self-reflection
- #formative-years
- #framework
- #meta
- Silhouette Regression and the Formative Years Anchor
- #personal
- #self-reflection
- #formative-years
- #framework
- Wall Street's "233-Year Monopoly" Claim: An Audit of the April 21–23 Events
- #crypto
- #tokenization
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- #political-economy
- Mo Gawdat's Dystopia Thesis: A Steelman and Audit
- #ai
- #ai-safety
- #political-economy
- #futurism
- #macro
- How the 90s electronic vanguard actually makes records — organic vs patterned
- #music
- #electronic-music
- #craft
- #production
- The Ryōma Archetype, 2026 — Who, What, Where
- #framework
- #strategy
- #geopolitics
- #japan
- #political-economy
- Fertilizer Through Hormuz — Keen's Food Crisis and the Japan Exposure
- #macro
- #finance
- #iran-war
- #japan
- #family
- Polly's Fidelity 403(b) — Allocation Research
- #finance
- #personal
- #family
- #macro
- #strategy
- The Household Agent: A Separate System, Not an Extension of the Vault
- #ai-tools
- #agents
- #personal
- #strategy
- #mcp
- AI Infrastructure Endgame — Indicators, Archetypes, and Gaps
- #ai-economics
- #macro
- #market-analysis
- #political-economy
- #framework
- Macro Force Vectors — April 2026
- #macro
- #finance
- #strategy
- #framework
- What an AI Crash Looks Like and How to Defend a 401k Against It
- #ai-economics
- #macro
- #personal
- #finance
- #market-analysis
- Interstellar — Why It Works (The Emotional Formula)
- #personal
- #film
- #storytelling
- #music
- #craft
- EV Buying Guide: Father-in-Law's Rural WA/OR Commute
- #personal
- #family
- #ev
- #practical
- Linguistic Habitus and the Three Resources: Where You Fit in Bourdieu's Machine
- #bourdieu
- #cultural-capital
- #status-signaling
- #self-reflection
- #personal
- Staff Engineer Job Market 2026: Should You Move?
- #career
- #market-analysis
- #personal
- #strategy
- #ai-economics
- Music Discovery and Taste Archaeology: Going Backwards to Go Forward
- #personal
- #self-reflection
- #japan
- #music
- PNW Seafood Through Japanese Eyes: What's Here That You're Missing
- #japan
- #personal
- #food
- AI Token Economics and Open-Source Competition (April 2026)
- #ai-economics
- #strategy
- #market-analysis
- The Efficiency Counterthesis: Can Technology Outrun the Unwind?
- #ai-economics
- #market-analysis
- #hardware
- #strategy
- Fantasy FAANGball: Can You Build a Fantasy Sports League for Software Engineers?
- #product-idea
- #github
- #gamification
- #satire
- #feasibility
- Human Augmentation and the Speed Mismatch
- #transhumanism
- #evolution
- #philosophy
- #personal
- #self-reflection
- Elite Overproduction, Status Signaling, and the Crisis of Social Consensus
- #turchin
- #bourdieu
- #elite-overproduction
- #status-signaling
- #cultural-capital
- How Your Taste Works (And What It Has to Do With Class)
- #bourdieu
- #status-signaling
- #cultural-capital
- #self-reflection
- #japan