Tag
#macro
65 docs
- AI Capex Watchlist Check — August 20, 2026analysis
- Compute as Collateral — The Residual-Value Wrap and What It Does to the Depreciation Questionresearch
- Five Years of Capex Already Signed — What the $3T Tally Actually Locks Inresearch
- Four Mountains — Splitting $3T by Why It Is Being Spent, and Who Paysanalysis
- The Mask That Eats What It Hides — Memory, Power, and the Cyclical 20%research
- What $3 Trillion Has to Earn — A Token-Level Feasibility Modelanalysis
- China's Silent Depression: The Balance-Sheet Recession, Verified by Bank Behaviorresearch
- If the Bubble Collapses: Which Way Do Token Prices Break, and Do the Labs Survive?research
- The Rotation Playbook: Exit Paths by Sleevereference
- Regime Check — August 7, 2026: The Freeze Converts, B Takes the Leadanalysis
- The Hidden Bank Closes: Yen Carry, Channel 1, and the AI Boom's Japanese Funding Legresearch
- The Shadow Balance Sheet: Nikkei's $1.65T and the SPV Layer, Verifiedresearch
- Demand Destruction or Strategy? The China Import Cut, Adjudicatedresearch
- The Apartment Glut and the Multifamily Lender Tellresearch
- The China Oil Buffer: Auditing "How China Saved the World" (Max Fisher)research
- The Shadow-Bank Household Channel: How Private Credit Wired Itself Into the Savings Pumpresearch
- The Failure Cascade Indexreference
- How Inflation Dies: Demand Destruction and the Empty Reservoirresearch
- Normalization or Destruction: A Trend-Break Test for the Asset Drainreference
- Regime Check — July 11, 2026: The Dot Plot Flips, Oil Round-Trips, and the Last Reservoir Narrowsanalysis
- The Involution Import: Open-Weight Deflation and Frontier Pricing Powerresearch
- The Two-Economy Gaugereference
- Cyclical-20 and the AI Capex Mask — Why Recession May Already Be Underwayresearch
- Regime Check — June 10, 2026: Both Stagflation Legs Fire, the Labor Read Breaks, the AI Tape Cracksanalysis
- Energy, Inflation, and the Stagflation Forecast — 2026 Through 2031research
- The Demand-Side Audit — Labor, Consumer, and the Institutional Capitulation Lagresearch
- Iran Ceasefire Durability — Is This Just Another TACO Lever?research
- Regime Check — May 27, 2026: Peace Premium Draining, Semi Concentration at Recordanalysis
- US Fertility Decline and Washington State Demographicsresearch
- Token Cost Velocity 2023-2026: Three Labs, Three Tiers, and Where the Curve Is Headedresearch
- EV Options After the Trailseeker Stockout (May 19, 2026)analysis
- Aschenbrenner × Dwarkesh: Verification, Funding, and Auditresearch
- Earnings Potential, Age 40 → 65: Paths, Ceilings, and the AI Wallresearch
- The Data Center Convergenceresearch
- The Eccles Inversion — Warsh's Confirmation, the May 13 Data Collision, and the New-Accord Questionresearch
- AI Survival Theater and the Bubble: Is Adoption Real or Performative?research
- The EV Sales Paradox of 2026 and the R2 vs. Trailseeker Questionresearch
- Mechanism vs Narrative: An Analytical Methodresearch
- The Information Density and Event Speed Asymmetryresearch
- The Midwest Resurgence and the Physical Capital Pivot: Structural Shift or Regime Artifact?research
- Regime Cascade Architecture: Reservoirs, Dams, and Transmission Channelsresearch
- The Government Put Question: Rescue Models and 2026 Conditionsresearch
- The Warsh Fed and the Financial Repression Thesisresearch
- AI Circular Financing and Banking Exposure: How Close Is a Banking Issue?research
- Japan Debt Trap Thesis: An Empirical Auditresearch
- The Second Gilded Age Thesis: An Empirical and Historical Auditresearch
- Anthropic Subsidy Stress Test — What Happens If the Compute Discount Goes Awayresearch
- Anthropic Unit Economics and the Power-User Lossresearch
- Wall Street's "233-Year Monopoly" Claim: An Audit of the April 21–23 Eventsresearch
- Mo Gawdat's Dystopia Thesis: A Steelman and Auditresearch
- Regime Check — May 2, 2026analysis
- PCC Deficit Paths and the May 27 Decisionanalysis
- The Ryōma Archetype, 2026 — Who, What, Whereresearch
- Fertilizer Through Hormuz — Keen's Food Crisis and the Japan Exposureresearch
- Polly's Fidelity 403(b) — Allocation Researchresearch
- Regime Check — April 26, 2026analysis
- Why the Market Refuses to Crashanalysis
- AI Infrastructure Endgame — Indicators, Archetypes, and Gapsresearch
- PCC Closure and the Childcare Collapseanalysis
- The Elite Operating Manualanalysis
- Macro Force Vectors — April 2026research
- Portfolio Rebalance Plan — April 2026plan
- What an AI Crash Looks Like and How to Defend a 401k Against Itresearch
- Should I Switch the Forester to an EV? (April 2026 Hormuz Edition)analysis
- The Full Stack: Energy, Chips, and the AI Subsidy Unwindanalysis